Some scholars are naming the actually ongoing “Covit 19”
pandemia as the third world war. This is very sad situation. We know that
during the first and second world wars more than hundred million people died and
enormous amount of assets destroyed.
Due to the measures taken to prevent the contagiousness
of this lethal virus, traveling between
countries and even cities ended. Those who are able to work from home were sent
and confinement became the new life style for most of us. We do not until when
and how the lightening or lifting the will occur. Staying at home for such a
long period is not sustainable.
To stay alive we need primarily food, water and shelter.
This is the lowest stage and the foundation of Maslow hierarchy. Governments
are bewildered . No country had any preparedness for such plague. I have
difficulties to understand how easily the Spanish Flu of 1918 has been wiped
out from humanity memory while fifty million died. There is no any commemoration
day nor any statue but just void. Such as never happened. The Black Death of the
fourteen century appear in history books and in many articles.
Nouriel Rubini who has explained clearly the 2008
financial crisis now has published a list of outcome of this pandemia which
looks very depressing and gloomy. Starting from huge amount of unemployment ,
the bankruptcy of giant companies , deficiencies of the governments. Will whole
world unite to fight against cruel enemy ? I wish they could …
I want to make a brain storming with you on what can
happen and what solutions can be find.
As the disaster is not like an earthquake or eruption
of a volcano or a hurricane the existing shelters are in place. Now the major
issue is the food production and the distribution chain. The demand did not
diminish. As the world population remain to eat 3 times a day. But now mostly
at home instead of restaurants .
1) As there are many layoffs along with an increasing
amount of unemployment , the income of many families diminished considerably if
not exhausted totally. Hence they will
be more hesitant and thrifty in their expenditure. They will restrict themselves from delicacies
for sure. At this point we can easily predict the caviar and champagne sales
will die away . The exotic fruit demand will extinguish.
2) It is very common that farm workers move temporarily
to assist to harvest in many parts of the world. Now due to movements
restriction this will not happen in general . Hence we may expect replacement
of local workers higher wages or the crop will be left to vanish at the field. Hence
the price of the produce will be more costly thence expensive.
3) Foodstuffs travel from one country to another very
frequently during the last decades. Some countries are very dependent to
imported foods. Truck transportation is quite essential in Europe and north
America which is now a difficulty. Railroads are not ready to take its place or
support much. Airline companies are far to take any share due the high airfreights.
4) In view of above difficulties we can come into a
conclusion that a price increase is very likely to happen if not already in
place.
5)The marine traffic slowed down considerably due to the
lack of industrial products demand which is creating a delay in deliveries. We
may presume that existing stocks are lowering day by day.
Avram Aji
30.04.2020
